Should you buy a house when interest rates are rising?
The Short Version. Rising interest rates affect home affordability for buyers by increasing the monthly mortgage payment. Despite how it seems, there are benefits to buying when interest rates rise. Less buyer competition forces home sales prices down, opens up more choices for buyers and can reduce buyer risk.
Buying when interest rates are high could mean sacrificing on some levels, such as buying a smaller or more outdated home. On the other hand, there may be less competition amongst buyers, and sellers may be more willing to reduce prices.
Key Takeaways. Your interest rate becomes more important if you plan to live in your home for more than five years because you'll be paying it for a longer period of time. Buying a home at a lower price but at a higher interest rate can be workable if you can refinance the mortgage in the future to reduce your rate.
They determine how much consumers will have to pay to borrow money to buy a property, and they influence the value of real estate. Low interest rates tend to increase demand for property, driving up prices, while high interest rates generally do the opposite.
Ultimately, higher interest rates give prospective homebuyers more choices. Higher rates also mean that homes are staying on the market for longer than in previous years, giving buyers the opportunity to negotiate price and reducing the level of competition for any one home.
“We expect that 30-year mortgage rates will end 2023 at 5.2%,” the organization noted in its forecast commentary. It since has walked back its forecast slightly but still sees rates dipping below 6%, to 5.6%, by the end of the year.
Along those lines, organizations like Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association forecast that the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages will decline throughout 2023, continuing into the first quarter of 2024.
However, as high inflation costs press down on buyers, it could depress home values. Although he doesn't expect a major housing market crash, Buehler says he sees home values flattening out as inflation nestles into the housing market.
If you buy now, your money might have more buying power. As inflation continues to rise your money buys less. If you act now, then, you might be able to afford more home with your dollars than you would if you wait and inflation continues to rise.
'I believe by the end of 2023 we will see rates start to fall with a target of between 2.5 to 3 per cent in 2024. 'I believe if the base rate can get back to circa 2.5 per cent, then we will see rates hovering around that mark with a return to products that have not been seen in the mortgage industry for some time.'
How rising interest rates hurt housing market?
The U.S. housing market continues to face challenges due to today's higher interest rate environment. Affordability hurdles owed to a combination of higher home prices and elevated mortgage rates have slowed the housing market.
How do interest rates affect monthly mortgage payments? If the rise in interest rates has caused your mortgage rate to rise, your monthly mortgage payments will also cost more.

Mortgage rates increase in increments of 0.125%, and although one percent may seem like an insignificant amount, a quick glance at the numbers would tell you otherwise. As a rough rule of thumb, every 1% increase in your interest rate lowers your purchase price you can afford for the same payment by about 10%.
Right now, good mortgage rates for a 15-year fixed loan generally start in the 5% range, while good rates for a 30-year mortgage typically start in the 6% range. When this was written in late Mar. 2023, the average 30-year fixed rate was 6.32%, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey.
You can capitalize on higher rates by buying real estate and selling off unneeded assets. Short-term and floating rate bonds are also good investments during rising rates as they reduce portfolio volatility. Hedge your bets by investing in inflation-proof investments and those with credit-based yields.
The central bank has targeted getting inflation down to 2% by the end of 2024 – it is currently at a “higher than expected” 8.7%. BoE forecasts predict that interest rates will peak at 4.75% at the end of 2023 before falling to around 3.5% by 2025.
These organizations predict that mortgage rates will decline through the first quarter of 2024. Fannie Mae, Mortgage Bankers Association and National Association of Realtors expect mortgage rates to drop through the first quarter of 2024, by half a percentage point to about nine-tenths of a percentage point.
30-year fixed rate mortgage will average 6.4% for Q2 2023, according to the May Housing Forecast. National Association of Realtors (NAR). “[F]orecasts that … mortgage rates will drop—with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate progressively falling to 6.0% this year and to 5.6% in 2024.”
Fannie Mae expects the 30-year fixed to ease to around 6.1% in the second quarter of 2023, before falling to 5.9% in the third quarter and 5.7% in Q4. And it gets even better than that. By the end of 2024, they expect the 30-year fixed to average 5.2%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts rates will fall to 5.5 percent by the end of 2023 as the economy weakens. The group revised its forecast upward a bit — it previously expected rates to fall to 5.3 percent.
How high will US interest rates go in 2023?
Date | rate change | target rate |
---|---|---|
Dec. 13-14, 2022 | 0.50% | 4.25% - 4.5% |
Jan. 31-Feb. 1, 2023 | 0.25% | 4.5% - 4.75% |
March 21-22, 2023 | 0.25% | 4.75% - 5% |
May 2-3, 2023 | 0.25% | 5% - 5.25% |
Mortgage Rate Predictions For 2023
How wide is the gap? Fannie Mae sees the average rate of a 30-year fixed getting to 6.8% in 2023. Meanwhile, the prediction from Freddie Mac is 6.4%. The Mortgage Bankers Association is the real outlier, projecting the 30-year rate at 5.2% next year.
Inflation benefits those with fixed-rate, low-interest mortgages and some stock investors. Individuals and families on a fixed income, holding variable interest rate debt are hurt the most by inflation.
Demand for homes remains high, and there are fewer home sellers than there were in 2022. And while the market is cooling, experts don't expect an actual housing crash or a housing bubble burst in 2023. Will there be a housing market crash in 2023? It's highly unlikely that the housing market will crash in 2023.
Despite the fact that there are some troubling trends in the housing market, we're likely not going to see a crash in 2023 or 2024. While house prices are likely to drop, demand for housing caused by America's ongoing housing shortage is likely to keep prices relatively stable.
As long as inflation continues to rise, your savings will afford you more purchasing power now than they will in the future. Even if inflation and home prices seem high now, as long as inflation continues to increase house prices, you will be better off buying a house today than you will be tomorrow.
During a traditional recession, the Fed will usually lower interest rates. This creates an incentive for people to spend money and stimulate the economy. It also typically leads to more affordable mortgage rates, which leads to more opportunity for homebuyers.
That said, inflation commonly occurs due to the actions taken by the Federal Reserve. Overall, when more money becomes available, the purchasing power of a dollar decreases, which in turn increases the price of goods and services. Unfortunately, inflation affects most products and services, including real estate.
30-Year Mortgage Interest Rate Projected Forecast 2025. The 30 Year Mortgage Rate will continue to rise further in 2025. The 30 Year Mortgage Rate forecast at the end of the year is projected to be 16.25%.
In general, interest rates are likely to rise if the housing market crashes. This is because when the housing market goes down, it's often a sign that the overall economy is doing poorly too. And when the economy does poorly, investors typically look for safer investments like government bonds and mortgages.
What happens to interest rates when housing market crashes?
A housing market crash won't affect your existing fixed-rate mortgage. However, if the value of your home drops below your purchase price, then you'll be making payments that are greater than the worth of your property.
Product | Interest Rate | APR |
---|---|---|
30-Year Fixed Rate | 7.13% | 7.15% |
20-Year Fixed Rate | 7.11% | 7.14% |
15-Year Fixed Rate | 6.61% | 6.64% |
10-Year Fixed Rate | 6.63% | 6.66% |
Here's what that means for you: As the variable rate rises, more of your mortgage payment goes towards the interest and less to the principal portion of your mortgage balance. Your amortization period may increase, which means it'll take longer to pay off your mortgage balance than originally planned.
The most common reason is because you have an 'interest only' mortgage which means that you are only paying off the interest on the loan. In these cases, repayment of the capital at the end of the mortgage term is your responsibility e.g. through an endowment policy or alternative investment plan.
Why did my mortgage payment increase? Mortgage payments can fluctuate because of changes in the economy like interest rates rising, but can also change for other reasons, such as if your property tax or homeowners insurance premiums increase.
Is 4.75% a good interest rate for a mortgage? Currently, yes—4.75% is a good interest rate for a mortgage. While mortgage rates fluctuate so often—which can affect the definition of a good interest rate for a mortgage—4.75% is lower than the current average for both a 15-year fixed loan and a 30-year mortgage.
Anything at or below 3% is an excellent mortgage rate. And the lower, your mortgage rate, the more money you can save over the life of the loan.
In a recent survey by the New Home Trends Institute, 92% of current mortgage holders said they would not buy again if rates exceeded 7% — up from 85% who said the same at 6%. All of this means fewer homes for sale.
FICO Score | National average mortgage APR |
---|---|
660 to 679 | 6.806% |
680 to 699 | 6.592% |
700 to 759 | 6.415% |
760 to 850 | 6.193% |
A 15% APR is good for credit cards and personal loans, as it's cheaper than average. On the other hand, a 15% APR is not good for mortgages, student loans, or auto loans, as it's far higher than what most borrowers should expect to pay. A 15% APR is good for a credit card. The average APR on a credit card is 22.15%.
Who is profiting from high interest rates?
Interest rates and bank profitability are connected, with banks benefiting from higher interest rates. When interest rates are higher, banks make more money by taking advantage of the greater spread between the interest they pay to their customers and the profits they earn by investing.
- Banks and other financial institutions. As rates rise, banks can charge higher rates for their loans, while moving up the price they pay for deposits at a slower pace. ...
- Value stocks. ...
- Dividend stocks. ...
- The S&P 500 index. ...
- Short-term government bonds.
- Ask the seller (or builder) for help. ...
- Buy points. ...
- Consider different lenders — and negotiate with them. ...
- Take over the seller's old mortgage. ...
- Make a larger down payment. ...
- Consider an adjustable-rate mortgage, government-backed loan or shorter term.
It's highly unlikely that mortgage rates will revert back to historic numbers of 2-3%. However, based on all current data, there's a pretty good chance that a 15-year fixed rate will flirt with dipping below 5% by the end of 2025.
Mortgage Interest Rate predictions for May 2024. Maximum interest rate 5.66%, minimum 5.16%. The average for the month 5.45%. The 30-Year Mortgage Rate forecast at the end of the month 5.32%.
Policymakers expect their interest-rate hikes to push the unemployment rate, now at 3.6%, to 4.5% in the last quarter of 2023, and to 4.6% in 2024.
Economic factors, such as inflation, have a direct impact on the real estate market. As with other goods and services, real estate prices may rise alongside inflation. This is due to the fact that real estate is commonly considered a safe and stable investment that can be used to combat the effects of inflation.
After peaking at 6.2% in 2022, we expect inflation to fall to 3.5% for 2023. Over 2024 to 2027, we expect inflation to average just 1.8%—below the Fed's 2% target.
Despite the fact that there are some troubling trends in the housing market, we're likely not going to see a crash in 2023 or 2024. While house prices are likely to drop, demand for housing caused by America's ongoing housing shortage is likely to keep prices relatively stable.
According to Folvary, the next housing market crash cycle is expected in 2024, which he says will snowball into a great economic depression in 2026. On the other hand, NAR economists forecast price growth in the housing market in the range of 15-25 percent over the next half-decade.
Where do you put cash during inflation?
- Real estate. Real estate is almost always an excellent investment and should be at the top of your list. ...
- Savings bonds. ...
- Stocks. ...
- Silver and gold. ...
- Commodities. ...
- Cryptocurrency.
In my opinion, real estate is one intelligent option to consider in 2023, as it often has excellent returns, tax advantages and provides diversification even in the face of a challenging economic climate. Real estate also has the potential to compound your investment.
- Beating Inflation.
- While Purchasing Power Decreases, Mortgage Payments Typically Remain Steady.
- Inflation Can lead To Higher Rental Income.
- Real Estate Appreciates Over Time.
- Saving Taxes.
- Write Off Business Expenses.
- Take Advantage Of Appreciation.
- Sell Real Estate Efficiently.
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